Travel Time Estimation for Ambulances Using Bayesian Data Augmentation1 by Bradford
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چکیده
We introduce a Bayesian model for estimating the distribution of ambulance travel times on each road segment in a city, using Global Positioning System (GPS) data. Due to sparseness and error in the GPS data, the exact ambulance paths and travel times on each road segment are unknown. We simultaneously estimate the paths, travel times, and parameters of each road segment travel time distribution using Bayesian data augmentation. To draw ambulance path samples, we use a novel reversible jump Metropolis– Hastings step. We also introduce two simpler estimation methods based on GPS speed data. We compare these methods to a recently published travel time estimation method, using simulated data and data from Toronto EMS. In both cases, out-of-sample point and interval estimates of ambulance trip times from the Bayesian method outperform estimates from the alternative methods. We also construct probability-of-coverage maps for ambulances. The Bayesian method gives more realistic maps than the recently published method. Finally, path estimates from the Bayesian method interpolate well between sparsely recorded GPS readings and are robust to GPS location errors.
منابع مشابه
Time Estimation for Ambulances Using Bayesian Data Augmentation
We introduce a Bayesian model for estimating the distribution of ambulance travel times on each road segment in a city, using Global Positioning System (GPS) data. Due to sparseness and error in the GPS data, the exact ambulance paths and travel times on each road segment are unknown. We simultaneously estimate the paths, travel times, and parameters of each road segment travel time distributio...
متن کاملSupplementary Material for Travel Time Estimation for Ambulances Using Bayesian Data Augmentation
متن کامل
Travel Time Estimation for Ambulances using Bayesian Data Augmentation
Estimates of ambulance travel times on road networks are critical for effective ambulance base placement and real-time ambulance dispatching. We introduce new methods for estimating the distribution of travel times on each road segment in a city, using Global Positioning System (GPS) data recorded during ambulance trips. Our preferred method uses a Bayesian model of the ambulance trips and GPS ...
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تاریخ انتشار 2013